Judul : Battle royale between past and present
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Battle royale between past and present
Making sense of the undercurrents swirling beneath Malaysia’s 14th general election.
KUALA LUMPUR: Many events in the past have influenced present strategies being employed by both sides of the political divide, leading up to what is expected to be a battle royale at the 14th general election (GE14) in the coming weeks.
BN strategic communications (BSNC) deputy director Eric See-To, in an exclusive interview with AFP, shed some light on the undercurrents swirling beneath GE14 — which had its stirrings when the relationship between former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his protege, Najib Razak, the son of Malaysia’s second prime minister, Abdul Razak Hussein, started to unravel in 2009.
Najib felt he was ready to step out of Mahathir and past prime ministers’ shadows and forge ahead with his transformation vision for Malaysia.
The relationship between the two can be traced back to when Mahathir was brought back into Umno, Malaysia’s largest political party, in 1971 by Razak after he was ousted from the party by the first prime minister Tunku Abdul Rahman.
“Mahathir believed that by mentoring Najib, he was repaying a debt to Razak as he felt that he needed to help his son after Razak accepted him back into Umno, and it also did not hurt that Najib was doing well politically.”
Najib’s roots in politics go deep — being the son of the second prime minister and nephew to the third prime minister, Hussein Onn. Najib’s debut into politics began at a very early age of 23 and he held various portfolios in his time in the Cabinet.
“He impressed as Pahang menteri besar between 1982 and 1986 and subsequently went on to serve in various portfolios, including the education ministry, defence ministry and even as youth and sports minister,” See-To said.
He said the Mahathir-Najib relationship first began to sour in 2009 when Mukhriz ran for the Umno Youth chief post and lost to Khairy Jamaluddin, the son-in-law of the fourth prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Despite losing, Mukhriz did not give up.
See-To said Mukhriz, who was just appointed the menteri besar in 2013, then eyed the vice president seat in Umno, instead of first contesting for a seat in the supreme council, as how things were usually done in Umno.
“He lost against Najib’s cousin, Hishammuddin Hussein, but insisted on being appointed as a council member, but this was turned down again by Najib as the prime minister believed that Mukhriz still needed time and to prove himself first as menteri besar.”
Following that rejection, in December 2013, Mahathir announced his resignation from his Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) adviser position citing health concerns.
“Mahathir announced his resignation on very the first day of the new supreme council meeting and one day after the Umno general election. It was his way to publicly display his dismay with Najib’s decision.”
Despite citing health concerns, a few months later, Mahathir took up the position as chairman of Proton Holdings Bhd in May 2014.
“Proton at the time was facing loses and needed a government grant of up to RM3 billion for a bailout.When that grant request was rejected, in August the same year, Mahathir announced that he had withdrawn his support for Najib,” See-To said.
“Mahathir believes that he will always win which is why he would do whatever it takes, to use whatever dirty tricks, to go back on whatever principles he had and say whatever the public wants to hear just to win because it is unfathomable for him to lose to his protege.”
See-To said many believed that Mahathir’s unhappiness was also contributed by Najib’s policies of abolishing the widely criticised Internal Security Act and perception that he favoured imports over local products, by his action of declining to support the privately-held DRB-Hicom.
See-To also said that he believed Najib did not deliberately distance himself from his former mentor but that he had to make transformation plans and part of it was to correct problems from the past.
Najib refused to repeat the mistakes made during Mahathir’s time as a leader, specifically on the privatisation of national government assets to unqualified cronies.
“Najib is a victim of his sincere drive to transform Malaysia, to move away from the past.
“If he had agreed to Mahathir’s demands, it would have meant status quo and there would be no transformation,” he said.
See-To considers that Mahathir had miscalculated this contest and assumed that Najib would be easy to oust while under-estimating Najib’s resolve to bring the country forward by fulfilling his vision of a high-income, developed and inclusive Malaysia.
With Najib having a stronghold on Umno, Mahathir had no choice but to leave and to quickly find a power base – which led him to team up with the opposition, Pakatan Harapan – his sworn enemy for decades.
“They have been sworn enemies for many years but the irony now is Pakatan backtracking from wanting to take Mahathir down to save Malaysia to bringing Mahathir back to power to save Malaysia,” he said.
See-To claims that Mahathir has zero interest in the future of the country, citing his manifesto speech.
“The YouTube videos show he actually mentioned the manifesto in passing by name only three times, while he mentioned Najib’s name 120 times.
“Later, when questioned about the manifesto, Mahathir did not know what was promised, even admitting that the manifesto was not realistic, like abolishing the goods and services tax and abolishing tolls. To Mahathir, it was just a vehicle to fight Najib and embarrass him to satisfy his need for vengeance.”
See-To said that if Najib had given in to Mahathir’s demands and supported Mukhriz’s ambitions, there would be no such retaliation.
Politically and economically, bowing to Mahathir’s demands would also result in Malaysia continuing to suffer from unequal income distribution and greater disparity between the rich and poor. “Najib wants a more inclusive Malaysia where people in Sabah and Sarawak also enjoy equal development as Peninsular Malaysia.
“In the past, Mahathir did not support the government cash handout, Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) and the implementation of minimum wage but these have been the two tools that have helped make Malaysia more equal than ever, and increased household income of the Bottom-40 group.”
With the elections only two weeks away, all analysis and bank reports, as well as foreign media, expect Barisan Nasional (BN) to return to power.
“Pakatan Rakyat – a political coalition formed by PKR, DAP, and PAS was successful in the last general election because of the strong support from PAS, the second largest political party.”
However, Pakatan Rakyat fell out, following the 13th general election after DAP and PAS could not see eye to eye on matters involving implementation of shariah laws. This led to the formation of Pakatan Harapan, consisting of DAP, PKR, Amanah and PPBM.
“Listening to feedback from the ground, I believe that Mahathir will not be able to deliver the ‘Malay tsunami’ that Pakatan Harapan hopes for.
“The feedback is also clear that people are appalled that Pakatan is now working with their hated nemesis. There will be a reaction to punish them for betraying their trust and their lack of principles.”
See-To added that in the unlikely event Mahathir and his partners win the upcoming elections, they would not let Mahathir run the show.
“I am just afraid that Mahathir’s supporters and the man himself would be disappointed that they would be backstabbed because PKR has said in the past that they would hold a commission of inquiry on accusations against Mahathir during his tenure as prime minister.”
On the economic front, See-To said bank analysts have pointed out that a BN victory would mean a continuation of growth and a positive boost to the economy moving forward.
“A Pakatan victory, however, would mean an outflow of funds, a drop in the value of ringgit and the inability of Malaysia to reach its targets – all real outcomes if Pakatan fulfils its promises and implements its manifesto.”
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